EXPERIENCE IN IMPLEMENTING THE PROBABILITY METHOD FOR CALCULATION OF BUILDING STRUCTURES

Abstract

The current method of calculating building structures by limit states (previously by allowable stresses) is essentially semi-probabilistic. The main parameters of the method – load values, strength characteristics of materials, dimensions of elements, etc. – have a variable statistical nature. They are described by probabilistic methods, on the basis of which deterministic ​​design parameters are justified, which are subsequently used in calculations. Meanwhile, in parallel with this dual method, for many years, fully probabilistic (statistical) approaches to the calculations have been developed. The beginning of this process can be considered the end of the 1930s, when the probabilistic nature of the safety factor, represented in the canonical form of the product of factors, was discovered, and numerical values ​​of the guarantee of the non-destructibility of the structure were obtained. The 1950s and 1960s were marked by proponents attempts of probabilistic methods to introduce the concept of strength reserve and safety characteristics into design practice. Since the 1970s, domestic specialists have been actively developing probabilistic methods, and their results have been implemented in regulatory documents. In recent years, publications have appeared with proposals for further implementation of probabilistic approaches in the calculation.